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摘要
      在知识经济时代的今天，企业的发展基础、核心竞争力、发展潜力都与知识有着密不可分的联系。要让知识为企业增值，就必须依靠有效的知识管理技术和手段对知识进行管理。知识管理作为现代管理新理念和新的管理模式，已经日益成为企业关注的热点，成为决定企业竞争力的关键因素。知识管理系统的建立是知识管理得以实施的平台。随着我国企业对知识管理的认识不断加深，不少企业己开始尝试知识管理和知识管理系统的应用与推广。少数企业已经引入知识管理理念，知识管理企业文化的构建，特别是知识管理系统的开发与应用。他们当中有成功的，也不乏失败的。企业知识管理系统开发与实施项目失败的原因众多，其中一项重要因素是项目风险管理不成功。项目管理人员不重视风险管理，或者风险防范与监控工作做的不到位，风险转变成灾难，最后导致企业知识管理系统项目的失败。如何提高企业实施知识管理系统项目的成功率，有效减少和防范知识管理系统项目的风险就成为一个具有重要理论价值和实际指导意义的问题。
      论文首先对软件项目风险管理理论进行了阐述，然后基于软件开发生命周期理论，对企业知识管理系统风险从开发周期的不同阶段对风险进行了研究，采用问卷调查、头脑风暴与面谈的方法对各阶段的风险因素进行了识别，并运用数学统计分析方法对调查结果进行了统计分析与排序，确定出了各阶段的前十大(TOP10)关键风险因素和关键风险，并初步估算出了各阶段关键风险因素的发生概率与风险影响程度，同时给出了企业知识管理系统风险因素谱系。最后，设计了企业知识管理系统项目风险防范体系的总体框架，并针对所确定的十大关键风险因素，制定出相应的关键风险因素防范策略和监控模式。为企业防范知识管理系统开发中的风险提供了理论依据与实践指导。
      论文的主要创新点包括:第一基于软件开发项目生命周期理论，确定了企业知识管理系统项目各生命周期阶段的十大关键风险因素及风险因素谱系；第二设计了适合企业知识管理系统项目风险防范体系的总体框架；第三针对企业知识管理系统开发生命周期各阶段的十大关键风险因素，制定了有效的风险防范对策与监控模式。
关键词:企业知识管理系统，软件项目风险管理，项目生命周期
Abstract
      In today's knowledge-based economy, the basis of the development of enterprises, the core of competitiveness and growth potential are inextricably linked with knowledge. In order to let the knowledge rise the value of the enterprises, we must depend upon the effective knowledge management technologies and methods to manage the knowledge. Knowledge management as a new management concept and new management style of modern management, has increasingly become the focus of attention, and been the key competitiveness factor of enterprises. The knowledge management  system's  establishment  is  the  platform  which  the  knowledge management  can  implement.  With  the  deeper  understanding  of  knowledge management of enterprises in our country, many of them started to attempt the knowledge management and the knowledge management system's application and promotion. The minority business enterprises already introduced the knowledge management  idea,  constructed  the  enterprise knowledge management  culture, particularly developed and employed the knowledge management system. Some of them are successful, there also some are failure. There are many reasons for the failure of enterprise knowledge management system development and implementation, the most important factor is the failure of project risk management.  The project
management personnel do not think much of the risk management, or the risk guard and the monitoring work do not well, then the risk turns into disaster, what finally causes the enterprise knowledge management system project failure. How to improve the implementation success rate, and effectively reduce and guard against the risk of the knowledge management system project has become a problem with important theoretical value and practical guide meaning.
      First of all this thesis expatiates on software project risk management theory, and then basing on the software development life-cycle theory, studies the risk of the enterprise knowledge management system from different stages of the development cycle, uses the questionnaires investigation, brainstorming and the face-to-face talking methods to identify the risk factors at each stage, and uses mathematics statistical analysis method to analysis the survey result and gives sort, ascertains the top ten (TOP 10) key risk factors and the key risk of each stage, and estimates the occurrence probabilities and the risk infection degree of the key risk factors in each stage, and simultaneously gives the risk factor pedigree charts of the enterprise knowledge management system. Finally, this thesis designs the risk guard overall frame of the enterprise knowledge management system project, and aims at top ten key risk factors which have determined before, constitutes the guarding strategy and the