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摘要
      能源作为时代列车前进的动力，与社会经济的各个领域紧密相关。随着中国经济规模的不断扩大，未来能源工业能否支撑我国经济的高速增长便成为人们所关心的问题。长期以来，制造业一直是中国经济增长的重要支柱。根据中国统计年鉴数据分析可知，从1998年至2002年这五年中，制造业在国内生产总值中的比重基本维持在40%以上，而且中国税收的50%来自于制造业。同时制造业也是耗能大户，制造业能源消耗量占能源消耗总量的比重基本维持在54%左右。为了顺利完成“十一五”规划纲要中提出的硬性指标，对制造业能源依存度进行综合评价分析，有针对性地提出降低制造业能源依存度的对策，有着非常重要的理论和现实意义。
      本文首先分析我国制造业能源依存现状，从经济学角度理解能源依存度并在此基础上对能源依存度的影响因素进行分析;其次是制造业能源依存度的评价指标的研究部分。根据制造业发展的特点，分析能源对制造业GDP的贡献程度，找出影响制造业能源依存度高低的因素，从而确定制造业能源依存度的评价指标;接着对各种指标进行分类和度量;最后根据度量结果，对各种指标进行筛选，最后确定对本研究有帮助的指标。
      接着构建制造业能源依存度的评价指标体系。首先设计制造业能源依存度的评价指标体系，设定评价依据、制定评价标准:接着分析制造业能源依存度的评价方法，根据研究目的，选取合适的评价方法;最后，根据评价标准和筛选出的指标，建立一套完整的、系统的制造业能源依存度的评价指标体系。
      最后是实证分析部分。主要从分四步进行研究:首先根据已经筛选出的指标，收集制造业能源依存度的相关数据并进行必要的数学处理;再以制造业能源依存度的评价指标体系为模型，将以上经过处理的数据代入模型，得出结果;接着对以上测算结果深入地进行剖析和研究;根据分析结果，结合能源依存现状及能源政策，找出可以降低制造业能源依存度的控制性因素，切合实际地提出降低制造业能源依存度的政策和建议。
关键词:制造业;能源依存度;评价指标体系
Abstract
      Being the subsystem of the giant system of society, energy is closely related to all other subsystems, such as economics, environment, and ecosystem. With constant expanding of the economic scale of China, it gets more and more concern whether the future energy industry can support the speeding development of China's economy. Over the years, manufacturing has been an important pillar in the growth of China's economic. In recent years, manufacturing contribute to 40% of GDP in China, and 50% of revenue come from manufacturing. At the same time, the gross of energy consume in manufacturing is very big. According to the related data, from 1998 to 2002, the gross of energy consumption in manufacturing take up 54% of total energy consumption in China. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation on energy dependence in manufacturing, and educing strategy of energy development has important practical significance.
      This paper firstly analyses the status of energy dependence in manufacturing, comprehends the energy dependence and gives influencing factors in evaluating energy dependence from energy economics aspect. Secondly, the paper analyses the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, energy saving, point out the important types of energy in manufacturing. Thirdly, according to the characteristics of energy dependence and related influencing factory, the paper picks up the determined targets in manufacturing energy dependence. Then from the industry of manufacturing, using Synthesized Index analysis and weight analysis method, it established the evaluating index system of manufacturing industry.Applied to the data of China's manufacturing from 1998 to
2002, it calculates the exact value of the energy dependence in manufacturing; Finally, the paper gives an advice that how to develop the energy in manufacturing from the aspects of energy supply, energy consumption and energy security. The production of this study provides important references criterion, the criterion is very helpful to establishing strategy of energy for government and related parts.
Key Words: manufacturing; energy dependence; System of Evaluation Indices; Synthesized Index analysis Method
目录
摘要
Abstract
1.绪论
1.1问题的提出